a man showing his kid how to control the robot

The Illusion of Control: Why We Crave a Predictable World

I’m going to delve into a discussion that I may not get entirely correct, as I’m still learning about it myself. It is the idea of free will and determinism. Although I would say that a majority of us believe we indeed have free will, this free will is built on an individualistic sense of determinism, in which we can exert some control. Thus, we finally get into the discussion of why we have a false sense of control. Our sense of determinism comes from a deep need to bring order to a chaotic world. This predictability gives us the promise of control in the sense that if we can control the causes of things, we can influence the outcomes to our benefit.

The Need for Survival

With this belief, our brains have been conditioned to be prediction machines. The problem with this machine is that it can only predict the future based on the past. This was once useful in times when we needed predictions for survival. Our ancestors would look at dark clouds and know it was time to seek shelter from incoming rain. Now, we are inundated with so much information that to make cause-and-effect correlations, our brains take mental shortcuts. Which means our brain machines are wrong a good amount of the time. Yet, we use it because we know of no alternative.

Determinism is the idea that a cause precedes every event. It is also worth noting that nothing is random. Much like Newton’s idea of a mechanistic world, the concept of determinism provides comfort; it transforms the universe from a mystery to a solvable puzzle. The idea that everything has a cause is the fundamental principle underlying all our solutions. Germs cause diseases, and personal success is often attributed to hard work and dedication.

How We Benefit From Determinism

The belief in determinism provides psychological relief, as it allows us to find meaning in our actions. Meaning can easily just be replaced with outcome. When I was searching for a meaningful job, I was subconsciously seeking a role that yielded positive outcomes, or what we’ve previously talked about, good endings. Believing in determinism means that nothing arrives through luck. Through this causal chain, anything deemed negative can easily be avoided as long as we don’t participate in its cause.

Maybe the most prominent benefit of determinism is the promise of mastery over outcomes. The idea is that if we can control the causes, then we will have power over the outcomes. If you understand this one sentence, you will understand the human fantasy of control. It suggests that we can fully understand the causes of happiness, health, and success, and thus ensure a good life. This idea is what makes the self-help industry so profitable.

Believing that determinism is true in every aspect of our lives empowers us to make the most of each day. In practice, this could look like preparation and goal-setting. We create business plans, follow recipes, and practice interview questions with the belief that specific actions (causes) will lead to desired outcomes (effects). The comfort of moving in this linear fashion is the belief that our actions are not in vain.

Cause -> Effect

The belief in determinism also underpins our judicial system. Good actions (causes) always lead to good rewards (effects). In contrast, all bad actions lead to consequences. We’ve been taught this for thousands of years through words like “karma” and phrases like “you reap what you sow.” This belief becomes the foundation of our moral code in a universe where “everything happens for a reason.” It also provides us with a basis for judgment. The multi-millionaire must be a good person because their outcomes should reflect their actions, whereas the homeless person deserves their position due to their actions. I’m guessing you can understand the problem with these assertions is that they are not always true.

The stories that we tell ourselves are based on a deterministic worldview. History is told in cause and effect, whether it be personal or what you find in a textbook. I remember telling myself that I should have studied more because of the poor grade I received on a test. Who’s to say that’s true? I’ve only said things like these because they give meaning to events in my life. If I didn’t study enough on one test, I can change my future by studying more the next time. It gives a sense of order and a hope that if I can understand the world’s machinery, I can master it rather than be a victim of it.

Questions and Responses

What exactly is determinism in simple terms?

Think of it like a series of dominoes. Determinism is the idea that every event, every “domino that falls,” is caused by the one that came before it. It suggests that nothing is truly random and that if you could know everything about the past, you could perfectly predict the future. It’s the ultimate “cause and effect” worldview.

You say we crave predictability. Why is that?

It appears to be a survival instinct ingrained in our brains. For our ancestors, predicting that dark clouds meant rain was a matter of life and death. Today, that same wiring seeks order in a world filled with overwhelming information. Predictability makes us feel safe and in control, reducing the anxiety that comes from chaos.

So, is free will just an illusion then?

That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? The article suggests that what we often call “free will” is actually our desire to be the master of our own causes. We want to believe our choices directly and predictably determine our outcomes. So, our sense of freedom is ironically built on a personal belief in determinism. Whether true free will exists outside of that is a debate philosophers have had for centuries.

How does this belief in controlling outcomes affect my daily life?

It’s everywhere! It’s in the self-help book that promises a formula for success, the business plan you write expecting a specific result, and even the way we tell stories about our past (“I failed because I didn’t study”). It is also the foundation of our justice system and moral codes, such as karma, the belief that actions have predictable consequences.

You mentioned a “dark side” to this thinking. What is it?

The problem arises when our simple cause-and-effect models lead to flawed judgments. If we believe that good outcomes only come from good actions, we might wrongly assume that a wealthy person must be morally superior and that a person struggling with poverty must deserve their fate. It leads to oversimplifying a complex world and can result in a lack of empathy.


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